Thursday, January 2, 2020

Relatively Cost-Effective Long-Term Fixes for Climate Change



Technology Can Help Bring Down

 CO2 Levels, But No Immediate 

Magic Fixes Exist


Evelyn Smith

"Keep calm and carry on" encouraging both entrepreneurrs and state, federal, and local goverments to fund research and development of inexpensive, practical alternative energy resources and transportation.  Of course, every change will bring about a reaction, so don't be surprised if these fixes bring about unanticipated circumstances.  For example, China's one child policy caused a drastic drop in its population as well as an unequal balance in working-age males and females.

1) As of yet, electric batteries are available to fuel jet planes only in short-distance, low occupancy experimental flights, so only expect to see their use in commuter planes in the near future while carbon credits don’t put the jet-fuel emissions back in a large-long distance jet's fuel tank.  For the foreseeable future, most commercial jets will still use petroleum-based fuel because of battery-storage problems; there simply isn't enough space on board to carry sufficient batteries to fuel a long-range  flight (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/19/aviations-flight-towards-low-emissions-only-fuels-the-crisis).

2) Meanwhile, high-speed rail projects, such as the privately-funded Texas Central project between Dallas and Houston, Texas, due to begin operation in 2025, will be a more opportunity-cost-effective and “ecologically friendly” way to transport travelers between relatively close urban areas instead of driving the route since it cuts the time down as well as the individual's fuel cost (https://www.texascentral.com/project/).  Similarly, Europe’s Channel-route from London to Paris to Amsterdam is already in operation (https://www.eurail.com/en/get-inspired/trains-europe/high-speed-trains/eurostar).  Virgin has also developed a high-speed train that runs between Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Florida, but it hasn’t achieved the high speeds envisioned yet (https://www.visitflorida.com/en-us/travel-ideas/brightline-rail-service-south-florida.html) just as Amtrak’s “high-speed” route between Washington and Boston isn’t all that speedy for most of its heavily-traveled route: (https://www.boston.com/travel/travel/2019/04/25/amtrak-to-increase-high-speed-train-service-between-boston-and-washington-dc). Unfortunately, high costs have run California’s high-speed project off the rails (https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-california-high-speed-rail-consultants-20190426-story.html).  Rail systems, high speed or otherwise, of course are easiest to build on relatively flat land and only make economic sense if they serve a relatively dense urban population.  Accordingly, Japan's famed bullet trains pioneered high-speed rapid transit, and China has similarly developed a wide-ranging network of high-speed trains since for China it's more important to keep a large segment of the population employed than to budget construction costs. 

3)  For now, for the most part, wind farms and solar energy cells produce electricity only when the sun shines, or the wind blows. As for the Toyota Prius, Chevy Bolt, or Nissan Leaf’s battery’s power, it obtains its night-time and rainy-day energy from whatever energy source the local electric utility uses unless a home, business, or school has a self-sustaining solar energy system equipped with Tesla-style batteries as well as a hefty bank account or sufficient credit to fund the project.   Texas power plants, for instance, obtain most of their power from comparatively-clean-burning, low-cost natural gas, even though Texas is the nation’s leading wind power-producer (https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=TX).  However, home owners might wish to hold off on installing a solar power system since solar panels are being developed that will actually hold more solar power than the ones currently in use (https://news.energysage.com/what-is-the-power-output-of-a-solar-panel/ and https://conservationfolks.com/efficient-solar-energy-compared-to-other-renewable-energy/).

4) Nuclear energy does produce “clean” energy if a country accepts the slight risk of a Chernobyl-style nuclear meltdown. France, for example, obtains 75 percent of its electricity from nuclear sources ( https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx).

5) Hydro-electric energy is limited to a few locations where falling water generates enough force to produce energy (https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/water-science-school/science/hydroelectric-power-how-it-works?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects). The United States has already taken advantage of most of  the sites that can economically produce hydro-electricity, but China is continuing to develop these dams: (https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/environmental-impacts-hydroelectric-power).

6) However, the US is blessed with a safety net--relatively clean-burning petroleum and natural gas obtained from shale that will buy the US time to come up with non-CO2-emitting solutions before environmentalists take energy consumption (or non-consumption) back to the horse and buggy era (https://naturalgasnow.org/co2-emissions-resume-falling-due-to-shale-revolution/). Accordingly, the US won't be importing much petroleum for the foreseeable future. Europe and Asia, however, aren't so lucky and will have to rely on Middle Eastern petroleum. Similarly, it's easier for California (on the wrong side of the Rocky Mountains from all that North Dakota and Texas shale) to get its petroleum from Alaska than the other lower 48 states. Remember that both Germany and Japan's lack of access to a ready supply of petroleum was a contributing cause for World War II (http://www.questioz.com/questioz-research-articles/the-impact-of-german-and-japanese-petroleum-strategy-on-world-war-ii).

7) As an opportunity-cost public expense, public transportation (rapid-transit systems) only works in urban areas where it costs less, and/or it is more convenient to take the subway, bus, or urban rail system than having the freedom of coming and going in a private car particularly for middle-class families or workers.  For instance, taking the subway in New York, Washington, D.C., Chicago, or San Francisco or the London Underground or the Paris Metro is both convenient and economical.  However, these systems are only economically feasible in densely-populated urban areas.

8) As for going vegetarian, while limiting beef consumption and eating oily fish several times a week will bring down cholesterol levels, cattle and sheep as well as any other grazing animals deposit grass seeds in their dung, thus helping to reseed prairie grasslands (http://www.beefresearch.ca/blog/let-cattle-do-the-seeding/), so abstaining from meat doesn’t necessarily preserve grasslands since the animals and the plants in these systems share a symbiotic relationship. Sorry, AOC.

9) Finally, don’t fret too much about the population explosion since all of Europe, China, Japan, the Koreas, the United States, Australia, and Canada have fertility rates below the replacement level, and once fertility rates start going down, they ordinarily keep decreasing:  https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/replacement-fertility-declines-worldwide; https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/10/health/us-fertility-rate-replacement-cdc-study/index.html).  Urbanization and the education of women as well as economic recessions have resulted in these lower birth rates in both already industrialized and developing countries.

10) This however also creates a problem (or an opportunity), for as the adult population ages, countries will have to cope with a lower tax base and a smaller population of working adults to help pay for its health care, so they will need to raise the age of retirement gradually, considering the current life span of most older adults in post-industrialized countries as well as find ways of forestalling or preventing Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and other debilitating diseases (https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/8950/society/impact-ageing-population-economy/).  Aging populations also buy less consumer goods and use transportation less than younger populations; and as a general rule,  upper-middle-class older adults stop investing in stocks once they reach retirement and instead place their money in annuities or other-less risky ventures (https://www.seniorliving.org/finance/investing/).

In summary, any time a country's secondary and university and technical school enrollment increases, it brings down birth rates while nutrition and preventive health care lower mortality rates in adults over age 65.  An aging population should also have a positive impact on any human-produced climate change.